The Daily Current: Climate Commodities | 43

Two further items below, the FAO food price reading and the USGS mineral deposits update, were released earlier in October and included because they bear directly on this week's dockets.

Status: Receipt of application. Not an approval.

On 13 October 2026, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), within the US Department of Commerce, published a notice that it had received an application from Eco Minerals, Inc. for a deep seabed mining exploration license. The notice appears at 91 FR 64880 and concerns docket NOAA-NOS-2026-2608.

NOAA said the application met the applicable information requirements under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act and its implementing regulations. The agency’s notice identifies areas in the Pacific Ocean beyond national jurisdiction, including areas in the Clarion Clipperton Zone and between Guam and Wake Island. NOAA reported that it received an amended application on 5 December 2025.

The notice establishes a public process. NOAA set 14 December 2026 as the deadline for written comments. It scheduled a virtual public hearing for 16 November 2026, from 3:00 to 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. People who want to attend must register by 12 November 2026.

The Federal Register notice links to the application materials and outlines how to submit comments. NOAA states that the hearing does not replace written comments. The notice also says that relevant comments generally become part of the public record.

NOAA’s 13 October 2026 notice does not grant, approve, or deny a license. It does not assess the application’s environmental impacts or endorse the proposed activity. The agency’s finding that the application meets information requirements is a procedural step; it is not a decision on the merits of the application.

The notice does not authorize or project production volumes, timelines, or quantities of minerals. Those outcomes are not specified in the notice.

The NOAA notice is a first of its kind docket under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act process. It opens a formal public record for this application and provides a defined period for stakeholders, researchers, and communities to review the materials and submit comments.

For people following the issue, the immediate focus is the process and the record it develops, not a presumed outcome. The comment deadline is 14 December 2026. The scheduled hearing offers another way to provide input, with advance registration required. The NOAA notice makes clear that oral comments at the hearing do not replace written submissions.

This is a docket watch, not an outcome watch. The application, written comments, and hearing record will provide material for following the process as it continues.

Status: Proposed rule. Open for comment. Not final.

On 13 October 2026, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced a proposed rule under docket EPA-HQ-OAR-2024-0505 and 40 CFR Part 80. The proposal concerns additional 2025 small refinery exemption volumes and the 2026 and 2027 Renewable Volume Obligations.

EPA proposes to reallocate 100% of the difference between projected and actual 2025 small refinery exemption volumes. That difference is an additional 770 million renewable identification numbers (RINs) waived beyond the volume projected in the “Set 2” rule.

EPA offers two approaches for comment. The first would divide the additional 2025 volume equally between the 2026 and 2027 compliance years. The second would assign all of the additional volume to the 2027 compliance year. EPA also says the proposed revision may extend the existing 2026 compliance reporting deadline of 31 March 2027.

The EPA proposal page identifies the docket and describes the two approaches. EPA set 4 December 2026 as the public comment deadline and scheduled a virtual hearing for 4 November 2026. Registration for the hearing is due by 28 October 2026.

RINs are the units referenced in the Renewable Fuel Standard’s compliance framework. In this proposal, the allocation choice concerns when the additional waived volume would be reflected across the two compliance years. EPA has not selected a final approach.

EPA’s 13 October 2026 action is a proposal, not a final rule. It does not determine which allocation approach will apply. It does not state what RIN or biofuel prices will do, and it does not change the underlying 2026–2027 volume rule beyond the reallocation question described in the proposal.

The proposal also does not establish a final change to the 2026 reporting deadline. EPA says that the proposed revision may extend the existing deadline; the agency has not finalized that change.

The two approaches could shape the timing of the additional volume across 2026 and 2027. For readers tracking biofuel feedstock demand, that timing is relevant to markets connected to crops such as corn and soybean oil. The proposal leaves the choice open for comment, so the possible timing effects should not be treated as settled.

Daily market roundups covering the week reported lower soybean oil futures and included commentary about corn yield context. Those observations are market commentary, not the issued record. The EPA proposal is the primary document behind the week’s agricultural market discussion, and it sets out the reallocation question without specifying resulting prices.

The public process gives interested parties a way to comment on how the additional 2025 exemption volume should be handled. The 4 November hearing and 4 December comment deadline are the next dates in the proposal's review. The potential 2026 reporting deadline extension is also open, rather than decided.

Status: Agency communications. Context, not a new rule.

On 14 October 2026, EPA published a news release describing the agency's American Farmer First engagements during a three day Midwest swing through Iowa and Wisconsin. The engagements covered farm bureaus, ethanol producers, equipment operators and a water recovery facility. The release states that the RIN reallocation proposal was announced at the Dubuque County Farm Bureau, and that EPA had promised to propose 100% reallocation by the end of October. It also describes related engagements during the same window: a visit to an ethanol facility in Dyersville, Iowa with Representative Ashley Hinson; discussions of the February Right to Repair guidance and the agency's July decision to recognize SEMA as a certification authority for aftermarket vehicle parts; a National Farmer's Day roundtable on 12 October with the Iowa Farm Bureau, Iowa Soybean Association, Iowa Corn Growers Association, and local producers; and a tour of Dubuque's Water & Resource Recovery Center, where a $2 million federally funded project is planned to support upgrades for treating high strength waste.

The release is a communications document, not a regulatory action. It does not change the RIN proposal, its comment deadlines, or the two allocation approaches. It does not state a final decision on the 2026 reporting deadline. The $2 million figure describes a planned project, not a completed award, and the release does not present an assessment of environmental or economic outcomes.

The release sets the stated intent behind the RIN proposal: the agency frames the reallocation as keeping demand for biofuel feedstock crops intact. For readers tracking the proposal, the release confirms the end of October timing promise was met and identifies the audiences the agency is engaging, from farm bureaus to ethanol producers to equipment operators. It adds no new regulatory requirements.

Status: Statistical release. Published data, not a forecast.

On 2 October 2026, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) published the September reading of its Food Price Index. The index averaged 136.0 points, up 2.0 points (1.5 percent) from the revised August level. It stood 7.4 points (5.8 percent) higher than a year earlier and 24.3 points (15.1 percent) below the March 2022 peak. The next release is scheduled for 6 November 2026.

The crop based groups drove the rise. The Cereal Price Index averaged 122.8 points, up 5.1 percent from August and 17.2 percent above its September 2025 value. FAO attributed the rise largely to logistical constraints in the Black Sea region and dry weather in parts of North America ahead of winter wheat planting; world maize prices rose 5.6 percent month on month to their highest level in more than three years, supported by lower than anticipated yields in the United States and reduced export availability in Brazil. The Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 198.6 points, up 0.9 percent from August, driven mainly by palm oil prices rising for a fourth consecutive month; FAO noted soy oil prices remained well above year earlier levels, supported by robust demand from the biofuel sector. The Sugar Price Index averaged 114.0 points, up 6.1 percent from August, its third consecutive monthly increase and highest level since April 2025, on prospects of tighter 2026/27 season supplies. The Meat Price Index declined 1.1 percent and the Dairy Price Index was nearly flat, down 0.1 percent.

Alongside the index, FAO's Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, released the same day, forecasts world cereal production in 2026 to decline 2.1 percent from 2025 to 2,979 million tonnes, still the second-largest harvest on record. World trade in cereals is forecast to decline 3.5 percent from the record 2025/26 level, with wheat and maize exports dropping more than previously anticipated due to constrained Black Sea shipping routes. The Agricultural Market Information System Market Monitor, also hosted by FAO, notes that strengthening El Niño conditions add uncertainty to rice production prospects in South and Southeast Asia, while soybean yields are often 1.5 to 2.0 percent above trend during such events.

The index is a retrospective measure of international prices, not a projection of future prices. It does not identify specific buyers or sellers, does not set policy, and does not quantify future harvests. The October reading does not yet exist. FAO also notes that meat index values for recent months are derived from a mixture of projected and observed prices, which can lead to revisions.

Two threads in this reading connect to the commodities coverage of the weeks on file. First, cereal prices, particularly maize, carry a biofuel feedstock dimension that FAO states explicitly, which links the index to the EPA RIN reallocation question. Second, the soy oil note, robust biofuel demand holding prices well above year earlier levels, is the international price backdrop to the domestic biofuel market discussion. For readers tracking feedstock costs across the climate transition, the FAO reading is the global reference point that the domestic dockets do not provide.

Status: Data release. Version 3.0, published 29 September 2026.

On 29 September 2026, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) published version 3.0 of its critical mineral deposits database for the United States, announced in a national news release. The database documents 1,271 mineral deposits across 41 states plus Puerto Rico. Of those, 412 deposits have documented critical mineral resources and no history of past production. Version 3.0 adds data for nine minerals carried on the 2025 federal critical minerals list: boron, copper, lead, phosphate, potash, rhenium, silicon, silver, and uranium. The release and database, including a new interactive map, are available on the USGS website.

The database is a mapping and documentation product, not an economic assessment. It does not grade the deposits for commercial viability, does not authorize any exploration or mining activity, and does not estimate production timelines. The presence of a documented resource does not mean the deposit can or will be developed.

The 412 documented but never produced deposits are the practical reference for the supply question behind the energy transition's mineral demand. The database matters for readers because it is the federal baseline dataset that siting discussions, workforce planning, and domestic supply debates refer back to. It also connects to the NOAA deep seabed docket: both documents map where minerals could come from next, one on land, one in international waters.

The edition covers 8–14 October 2026. Three primary items moved: the EPA RIN reallocation proposal (13 October), the NOAA seabed mining notice (13 October), and the American Farmer First release (14 October), which is context around the proposal rather than an additional rulemaking. No other material primary releases from LME, CME, ICE, US EIA, S&P Global, USDA, or OPEC moved on 13–14 October 2026.

Women's lens: The primary documents in this window name no women and carry no stated gender dimensions. The FAO data underlying the price index is aggregated at the commodity group level, so no gender dimension can be read from the index itself.
The next questions are what the public comments add, how the two dockets develop, and whether the October FAO reading confirms or breaks the September trend when it lands on 6 November.

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